Market Frenzy: A Major Signal Has Emerged...

November 11, 2024

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In a rather unpredictable twist, the market has shown its capricious nature once again. Just as investors seemed to be catching their breath after a day filled with declines, the situation flipped dramatically. Yesterday's downward trend gave way to a robust rally today, stunning those who had bet on further losses. This rollercoaster of highs and lows emphasizes the market's tendency to surprise, leaving those who were poised to act reeling. Thankfully for many, the unexpected adjustment yesterday was swiftly corrected today, bringing back an atmosphere reminiscent of a bull market, although certain signals warrant additional scrutiny.

As we look closer at today's market activity, several notable trends have emerged that require our attention. The erratic behavior of the market has been consistent—one moment, entire sectors are in the red; the next, they're experiencing an astonishing rebound. This morning, we saw indices such as the Shanghai Composite, ChiNext, and Shenzhen indices all rise by over 2%. Each achieved what is known as a "reversal," canceling out the downward trend signified by the previous day’s losses. This is an important marker of potential market recovery.

One observation that deserves mention is the mighty comeback of thematic stocks. More than 150 sectors saw increases exceeding 6% today. Among these, several previously struggling sectors, such as PEEK materials, storage chips, low-altitude economies, disperse dyes, and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), now exhibited their own rebound patterns. On the opposite end, value stocks boasting high dividends and attractive valuations underwent a necessary adjustment, as they had not felt the strain of market fluctuations in previous rounds. However, there remains a keen interest from investors, as shown by the significant gain in shares of CITIC Bank, which surged to a notable “limit up” mark.

Volume, a critical aspect of market health, has significantly surged. A sufficient influx of capital serves as a bedrock for initiating further upward movements. Across several trading sessions, the market has consistently recorded turnover around the trillion-yuan mark, indicating heightened trading activity. Today alone, the market's trading volume surged past 9,200 billion yuan, a stark increase from the usual figures of 7,000 to 8,000 billion yuan. Historical data suggests that the time between late February and late March generally maintained daily transaction volumes within the same range, providing a significant push for indices. Yet, the "teeter-totter" phenomenon in trading remains apparent. Whether the high levels of trading activity can be sustained in the face of subsequent developments requires vigilant monitoring.

Another key point of interest is the idea of stock fortitude, as demonstrated by strong-performing stocks carrying momentum from the previous day. Stocks like Tongwei shares, Zhonggong Gaokao, Chunguang Technology, and Hasan Technology have all continued their winning streaks today. Tracking this segment reveals lively participation from speculative funds, indicating robust investor confidence.

The market’s fluctuation is not confined to giant companies alone. Small-cap and ST stocks, which appeared to be sinking yesterday, experienced a noticeable lift today. The micro-cap index had a staggering decline of 10% yesterday, yet today rebounded by 9%. Some ST stocks observed gains of over 5%, while others remained firmly in decline. Interest in previously undervalued assets is again on the rise, pointing toward a potential market recovery.

The powerful rebound today can be attributed to a myriad of factors, including technical corrections following emotional sell-offs and specific guidance from regulatory bodies. For instance, recent communication from regulatory authorities regarding dividend payouts and delisting protocols has sparked a renewed focus on these subjects in the market. Adjustments to delisting metrics are intended primarily to mitigate the presence of "zombie" and unproductive stocks rather than to target small-cap shares directly.

Nevertheless, vigilance is essential, particularly as the reporting season for annual and quarterly results draws near. Below-par performance from underperforming stocks should be approached with significant caution. Observers like Bian Huizong have noted that the current phase of pessimism may extend at least until the conclusion of quarterly earnings reports, which means market sentiment might only begin to stabilize towards the end of May.

As noted, two central themes seem to be emergently defining the market's direction: "defensive" sectors showcasing high dividends, low valuations, and solid performance; and "offensive" shares driven by substantial thematic catalysts and high earnings elasticity. In the realm of high-dividend defensive stocks, central and state-owned enterprises stand out, particularly within coal, banking, transportation, and utility sectors. Newly implemented regulations governing cash dividends further solidify this category's significance.

The analysis now pivots toward offensive thematic stocks. In today’s market, various themed stocks saw notable rallies, and despite seeming lost to market whims, there is an underlying logic among them. While extreme price drops have prompted market excitement, it is essential to point out that these significantly engaged stocks are buoyed by their performance forecasts.

Consider the example of Zhaomin Technology from the PEEK materials sector. Today, the PEEK sub-sector surged by more than 11%, leading all concept sectors. PEEK, a lightweight engineering plastic, has increasingly come into focus with the latest applications in Tesla’s humanoid robot project. Zhaomin recently announced a positive outlook, projecting a net profit increase of 68% to 97% year-on-year. Following the announcement, shares swiftly climbed to their price ceiling.

Similarly, in the storied world of storage chips, Baiwei Storage also saw skyrocketing gains of 8.6%. The upward movement in Baiwei’s shares echoed that of Zhaomin, achieving an impressive limit-up status after a roaring opening. The company’s performance forecasts indicated a revenue turnaround from a loss to a profit, projecting gains of 15 million to 18 million yuan this quarter.

It is crucial to note that the exploration of these individual stocks is solely for insights and should not be construed as trading advice.

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